Track Record ✦ this season
55.1% Accuracy
497–405 across 902 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 454 | 902 | 50.3% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 443 | 902 | 49.1% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 463 | 902 | 51.3% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 437 | 902 | 48.4% | |
| Logistic | 470 | 902 | 52.1% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 522 | 902 | 57.9% | |
| Consensus | 497 | 902 | 55.1% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 5.8 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Tigers
46–23
66.7%
Phillies
45–23
66.2%
Mariners
33–18
64.7%
Dodgers
27–16
62.8%
Red Sox
40–24
62.5%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Guardians
31–36
46.3%
Cubs
27–30
47.4%
Blue Jays
31–34
47.7%
Rays
31–33
48.4%
Pirates
30–31
49.2%
20-point spread between best and worst — Guardians the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 522 | 52.3% | 53.1% | +0.7 |
| 55-60% | 262 | 57.0% | 56.5% | -0.5 |
| 60-65% | 71 | 62.4% | 59.2% | -3.2 |
| 65-70% | 30 | 66.9% | 50.0% | -16.9 |
| 70%+ | 17 | 72.6% | 88.2% | +15.6 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 902 | 497 | 55.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 365 | 215 | 58.9% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 3.8 points more accurate. 29% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
55.3%
across 915 picks
Home team picks
53.7%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
15%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
7 of 8
Monday, June 15 · 87.5%
✗ Worst day
2 of 9
Saturday, June 20 · 22.2%
Jun 8
Jun 23
Jul 7
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 7 | 6 | 12 | 50.0% | |
| Mon, Jul 6 | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | |
| Sun, Jul 5 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Sat, Jul 4 | 6 | 8 | 75.0% | |
| Fri, Jul 3 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Thu, Jul 2 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| Wed, Jul 1 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 30 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| Mon, Jun 29 | 2 | 7 | 28.6% | |
| Sun, Jun 28 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 27 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | |
| Fri, Jun 26 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Thu, Jun 25 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Wed, Jun 24 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Tue, Jun 23 | 5 | 12 | 41.7% | |
| Mon, Jun 22 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Sun, Jun 21 | 5 | 14 | 35.7% | |
| Sat, Jun 20 | 2 | 9 | 22.2% | |
| Fri, Jun 19 | 7 | 9 | 77.8% | |
| Thu, Jun 18 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| Wed, Jun 17 | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | |
| Tue, Jun 16 | 9 | 12 | 75.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 15 | 7 | 8 | 87.5% | |
| Sun, Jun 14 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Sat, Jun 13 | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | |
| Fri, Jun 12 | 5 | 12 | 41.7% | |
| Thu, Jun 11 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| Wed, Jun 10 | 4 | 12 | 33.3% | |
| Tue, Jun 9 | 3 | 10 | 30.0% | |
| Mon, Jun 8 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |