Track Record ✦ this season
57.9% Accuracy
264–192 across 456 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 224 | 456 | 49.1% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 230 | 456 | 50.4% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 233 | 456 | 51.1% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 216 | 456 | 47.4% | |
| Logistic | 234 | 456 | 51.3% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 303 | 456 | 66.4% | |
| Consensus | 264 | 456 | 57.9% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 15.1 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Red Sox
24–10
70.6%
Reds
24–11
68.6%
Giants
19–9
67.9%
Phillies
22–11
66.7%
Angels
20–10
66.7%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Rays
13–18
41.9%
Blue Jays
13–18
41.9%
Guardians
14–17
45.2%
Cubs
14–17
45.2%
Twins
16–17
48.5%
29-point spread between best and worst — Rays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 226 | 52.4% | 54.4% | +2.0 |
| 55-60% | 139 | 57.3% | 61.2% | +3.9 |
| 60-65% | 50 | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 |
| 65-70% | 25 | 67.1% | 48.0% | -19.1 |
| 70%+ | 16 | 72.5% | 87.5% | +15.0 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 456 | 264 | 57.9% | |
| Fallback lineups | 212 | 132 | 62.3% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 4.4 points more accurate. 32% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
56.5%
across 466 picks
Home team picks
53.6%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
18%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
6 of 7
Thursday, May 21 · 85.7%
✗ Worst day
0 of 1
Friday, May 22 · 0.0%
Apr 24
May 9
May 23
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, May 23 | 2 | 9 | 22.2% | |
| Fri, May 22 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| Thu, May 21 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| Wed, May 20 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Mon, May 18 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, May 17 | 11 | 15 | 73.3% | |
| Sat, May 16 | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | |
| Fri, May 15 | 10 | 15 | 66.7% | |
| Thu, May 14 | 6 | 11 | 54.5% | |
| Wed, May 13 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Sun, May 10 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Sat, May 9 | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | |
| Fri, May 8 | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Thu, May 7 | 2 | 10 | 20.0% | |
| Wed, May 6 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| Tue, May 5 | 7 | 12 | 58.3% | |
| Mon, May 4 | 9 | 12 | 75.0% | |
| Sun, May 3 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Sat, May 2 | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Fri, May 1 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Thu, Apr 30 | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | |
| Wed, Apr 29 | 3 | 9 | 33.3% | |
| Tue, Apr 28 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Mon, Apr 27 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| Sun, Apr 26 | 8 | 16 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Apr 25 | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |