Track Record ✦ this season
54.1% Accuracy
933–791 across 1724 games · season opened March 26
— By Simulation Type —
| Simulation | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 876 | 1724 | 50.8% | |
| Pitcher-weighted | 874 | 1724 | 50.7% | |
| Platoon-weighted | 853 | 1724 | 49.5% | |
| Pitcher + Platoon | 872 | 1724 | 50.6% | |
| Logistic | 864 | 1724 | 50.1% | |
| Random Forest ★ leader | 955 | 1724 | 55.4% | |
| Consensus | 933 | 1724 | 54.1% |
Random Forest is leading individual model by 4.6 points. Consensus edges out 5 of 6 sims.
— Per-Team Accuracy —
★ Top 5 teams
Giants
62–35
63.9%
Dodgers
52–32
61.9%
Tigers
75–49
60.5%
Phillies
77–51
60.2%
Rockies
56–39
58.9%
✗ Bottom 5 teams
Blue Jays
56–70
44.4%
D-backs
44–50
46.8%
Guardians
61–68
47.3%
Rays
63–65
49.2%
Royals
64–64
50.0%
19-point spread between best and worst — Blue Jays the hardest to call.
— Confidence Calibration —
Are our confidence numbers honest? Compare what we said to what actually happened.
| Confidence band | Picks | Avg predicted | Actual rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 1073 | 52.2% | 52.6% | +0.3 |
| 55-60% | 469 | 57.0% | 54.2% | -2.8 |
| 60-65% | 116 | 62.1% | 62.1% | +0.0 |
| 65-70% | 43 | 66.8% | 55.8% | -11.0 |
| 70%+ | 22 | 72.8% | 86.4% | +13.5 |
Overconfidence shows up most in the 65-70% band.
— Lineup Impact —
| Lineup status | Games | Correct | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real lineups | 1724 | 933 | 54.1% | |
| Fallback lineups | 618 | 351 | 56.8% |
Fallback-lineup predictions are 2.7 points more accurate. 26% of season picks rely on fallback lineups.
— Pick Distribution —
Avg confidence
54.8%
across 1725 picks
Home team picks
55.9%
vs MLB home rate ~54%
Unanimous picks
13%
all sims agreed
— Recent Performance —
Last 30 days
★ Best day
2 of 2
Tuesday, October 6 · 100.0%
✗ Worst day
1 of 4
Saturday, October 3 · 25.0%
Sep 11
Sep 26
Oct 10
| Date | Correct | Total | Accuracy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 6 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| Wed, Sep 30 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 29 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 6 | 14 | 42.9% | |
| Thu, Sep 24 | 4 | 11 | 36.4% | |
| Wed, Sep 23 | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 22 | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Mon, Sep 21 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 20 | 13 | 15 | 86.7% | |
| Sat, Sep 19 | 9 | 14 | 64.3% | |
| Fri, Sep 18 | 9 | 12 | 75.0% | |
| Thu, Sep 17 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| Wed, Sep 16 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Tue, Sep 15 | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Mon, Sep 14 | 7 | 10 | 70.0% | |
| Sun, Sep 13 | 5 | 15 | 33.3% | |
| Sat, Sep 12 | 7 | 14 | 50.0% | |
| Fri, Sep 11 | 10 | 13 | 76.9% |